Market Metrics
Welcome to the Market Metrics page, which provides key economic indicators relevant to UK furniture retailers. Use these metrics to understand the current economic environment and make informed business decisions.
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The metrics below offer a snapshot of the broader economic landscape. They highlight the pressures consumers face and provide valuable insights into potential external impacts on your business.
It’s important to remember these economic indicators reflect overall market activity and may not directly correspond to your specific performance. Economic indicators serve as a starting point for analysis, not definitive predictors.
By combining these metrics with your own business data and carefully assessing the financial pressures on your customers, you can better understand your market and develop informed strategies.
The reported percentage may change due to revisions in the data from the ONS.
Click on one of the metric boxes below for more information.
CPIH
12 Month Rate
Current: 3.5% (Nov)
Last Update: 3.2% (Oct)
Previous: 2.6% (Sep)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
OOH
12 Month Rate
Current: 7.8% (Nov)
Last Update: 7.4% (Oct)
Previous: 7.2% (Sep)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
PPI (Output)
Month to Month
Current: -0.6% (Nov)
Last Update: -0.9% (Oct)
Previous: -0.6% (Sep)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
AWE (Regular)
Month to Month
Currently: £656 (Oct)
Last Update: £653 (Sep)
Previous: £649 (Aug)
Latest Update: 17 Dec 2024
Unemployment Rate
3 Month Period
Aug to Oct: 4.3%
Jul to Sep: 4.3%
Jun to Aug: 4.3%
Latest Update: 17 Dec 2024
PIPR
12 Month Rate
Current: 9.1% (Nov)
Last Update: 8.7% (Oct)
Previous: 8.4% (Sep)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
HPI
Month to Month
Current: 0.2% (Oct)
Last Update: -0.3% (Sep)
Previous: 1.5% (Aug)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
HPI
12 Month Rate
Current: 3.4% (Oct)
Last Update: 2.9% (Sep)
Previous: 2.8% (Aug)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
Interest Rate
Month to Month
Current: 4.75%
Last Update: 4.75%
Previous: 5.00%
Latest Update: 19 Dec 2024
Retail Value
Month to Month
Current: 0.3% (Nov)
Last Update: -0.4% (Oct)
Previous: -0.4% (Sep)
Latest Update: 20 Dec 2024
Retail Volume
Month to Month
Current: 0.2% (Nov)
Last Update: 0.7% (Oct)
Previous: 0.1% (Sep)
Latest Update: 20 Dec 2024
(ONS)
Office of National Statistics Metrics
(CPIH)
Consumer Price Index, including owner occupiers' housing costs
Current: 3.5% (Nov)
Last Update: 3.2% (Oct)
Previous: 2.6% (Sep)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
Details: CPIH includes costs associated with owning, maintaining, and living in one’s own home, providing a comprehensive measure of living costs.
Relevance: Helps retailers understand the general inflation environment and its impact on consumer purchasing power.
Why CPIH and not CPI: CPIH includes owner occupiers’ housing costs, which are a significant part of household expenses. Since housing costs directly impact discretionary income, understanding CPIH can give you a better sense of your customers’ overall financial pressures.
Furniture purchases are often considered discretionary spending. If housing costs rise and are reflected in CPIH, customers might have less discretionary income for non-essential items like furniture. Tracking CPIH helps you understand this dynamic more accurately.
Consider Core CPIH for insights into underlying inflation trends over the long term. This measure excludes volatile items such as energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco. It helps understand sustained inflationary pressures, guiding strategic decisions and forecasts.
(OOH)
Owner Occupiers' Housing Costs
Current: 7.8% (Nov)
Last Update: 7.4% (Oct)
Previous: 7.2% (Sep)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
Details: OOH is a significant part of household expenses. Since housing costs directly impact disposable income, understanding OOH gives you a better sense of your customers’ overall financial pressures.
Relevance: Helps retailers understand the specific financial pressures on homeowners and their impact on consumer purchasing power.
Interaction with CPIH: OOH is a component of CPIH. A rise in OOH can drive up the overall CPIH, reflecting increased living costs for homeowners. Monitoring both OOH and CPIH helps you anticipate how rising housing costs might affect consumer spending on furniture and adjust your business strategies accordingly.
(PPI)
Producer Price Index - Output
Current: -0.6% (Nov)
Last Update: -0.9% (Oct)
Previous: -0.6% (Sep)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
Details: PPI measures the change in the prices that producers charge for their products, indicating inflationary pressures at the production level.
Relevance: Indicates changes in production costs, helping retailers anticipate future cost increases from suppliers.
Interaction with CPIH: If PPI is rising, it often precedes increases in CPIH as higher production costs are passed on to consumers. Tracking both helps you anticipate future cost increases and adjust pricing or sourcing strategies.
(AWE)
Average Weekly Earnings - Regular Pay
Currently: £656 (Oct)
Last Update: £653 (Sep)
Previous: £649 (Aug)
Latest Update: 17 Dec 2024
Details: AWE measures the average weekly earnings of employees, including bonuses (total pay) or excluding bonuses (regular pay).
Relevance: Higher wages increase discretionary income, potentially boosting consumer spending on furniture.
Interaction with:
CPIH (Consumer Prices Index including Housing): If wages are rising faster than inflation, consumers have more discretionary income, which can boost spending on furniture. If inflation outpaces wage growth, consumer purchasing power is reduced, potentially lowering demand for non-essential items like furniture. Significant increases in AWE could cause inflation (wage-price inflation) to rise as higher wages lead to increased product costs.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate and AWE together provide a fuller picture of the labour market. Low unemployment with rising AWE suggests a strong labour market, potentially increasing consumer spending.
Retail Sales: Higher AWE can lead to increased retail sales as consumers have more income to spend. This is particularly relevant for discretionary items like furniture. Conversely, if AWE stagnates or falls, retail sales may decline as consumers cut back on non-essential purchases.
House Price Index (HPI): Rising AWE can support higher HPI as people can afford larger mortgages and more expensive homes, which can also drive demand for home furnishings and improvements. If AWE is stagnant or falling, it may negatively impact the housing market and related furniture sales.
Interest Rates: Higher AWE can lead to increased consumer spending, which might prompt central banks to raise interest rates to control inflation. Higher interest rates can affect consumer loans and mortgages, potentially impacting spending on big-ticket items like furniture.
A note from the ONS on AWE.
“The estimates in this bulletin come from a survey of businesses. It is not possible to survey every business each month, so these statistics are estimates based on a sample, not precise figures. Average weekly earnings (AWE) for any given month is the ratio of estimated total pay for the whole economy divided by the total number of employees. As a result, AWE is not a measure of rates of pay and can be affected by changes in the composition of an enterprise’s workforce.”
Unemployment Rate
Aug to Oct: 4.3%
Jul to Sep: 4.3%
Jun to Aug: 4.3%
Latest Update: 17 Dec 2024
Details: Current unemployment levels.
Relevance: Lower unemployment generally leads to higher consumer confidence and spending. It indicates trends in consumer income and purchasing power.
Interaction with:
- Average Weekly Earnings (AWE): Together, these metrics provide a fuller picture of the labour market. While AWE indicates earning trends, the unemployment rate shows the proportion of people earning those wages.
- Retail Sales: High unemployment can lead to lower retail sales as consumers have less discretionary income.
- Consumer Confidence: Unemployment rates often correlate with consumer confidence levels, influencing spending behaviour and economic outlook.
(PIPR)
Price Index of Private Rents
Current: 9.1% (Nov)
Last Update: 8.7% (Oct)
Previous: 8.4% (Sep)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
Details: PIPR measures the changes in rental prices for privately rented housing, reflecting the costs tenants face.
Relevance: Indicates the financial pressures on renters, which can affect their discretionary income and spending behaviour.
Interaction with Interest Rates: Higher PIPR can indicate higher mortgage rates for landlords, which might be passed on to tenants through increased rents. Rising rental costs reduce tenants’ disposable income, potentially lowering demand for discretionary items like furniture. Conversely, if PIPR stabilises or decreases, renters may have more disposable income for non-essential goods.
(HPI)
House Prices Index
Month to Month
Current: 0.2% (Oct)
Last Update: -0.3% (Sep)
Previous: 1.5% (Aug)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
12 Month Rate
Current: 3.4% (Oct)
Last Update: 2.9% (Sep)
Previous: 2.8% (Aug)
Latest Update: 18 Dec 2024
Details: HPI measures the average changes in house prices across the UK, indicating trends in property values.
Relevance: It provides insights into the housing market’s health and impact on consumer wealth and spending patterns.
Interaction with Interest Rates: A rising HPI may lead to higher mortgage costs for homebuyers, reducing their disposable income for other purchases, including furniture. Conversely, a stable or decreasing HPI might indicate improved affordability, potentially boosting consumer spending on discretionary items like furniture.
We avoid labelling HPI increases or decreases as inherently positive or negative. However, changes can significantly impact furniture purchasing decisions. A stable or rising HPI may indicate consumer confidence and could translate to increased spending on furniture or home improvement projects. Equally, sharp declines could signal broader economic challenges, potentially affecting homeowners’ confidence and furniture spending. A declining HPI, however, might stimulate house buying, potentially leading to a boost in furniture sales later. Therefore, the impact of HPI on furniture sales is complex, and further research would be necessary to provide a more definitive answer.
Retail Value (Sales)
Current: 0.3% (Nov)
Last Update: -0.4% (Oct)
Previous: -0.4% (Sep)
Latest Update: 20 Dec 2024
Details: Retail Value refers to the total revenue generated from retail transactions within a specified period.
Relevance: Understanding Retail Value helps gauge overall consumer spending trends. Increases in Retail Value can indicate higher consumer confidence and purchasing power, while decreases may signal economic challenges or shifts in consumer behaviour. However, cost factors can also influence an increase in Retail Value if prices rise without a corresponding increase in sales volume.
Interaction with Other Metrics:
- CPIH and Inflation: Retail Value is sensitive to inflationary pressures. Higher inflation may lead to increased Retail Value due to rising prices, impacting consumer purchasing power.
- Retail Volume: Changes in Retail Value often reflect broader economic conditions. A rise in Retail Value and a corresponding increase in Sales Volume suggests robust consumer demand. Conversely, if Sales Value rises disproportionately to Sales Volume, it may indicate cost pressures or changes in consumer preferences towards higher-priced items.
- PPI (Producer Price Index): PPI influences Retail Value through changes in production costs. If producers pass on higher costs to consumers, higher PPI may result in increased retail value.
Retail Value captures nominal growth (not adjusted for inflation), whereas Retail Volume reflects real growth (adjusted for inflation).
Possible Scenarios
- Retail Value up, Volume flat: Inflation-driven growth (prices rise, but quantity sold remains unchanged).
- Retail Value up, Volume up: True consumer demand growth (higher revenue driven by increased sales quantity).
Retail Volume (Quantity Bought)
Current: 0.2% (Nov)
Last Update: 0.7% (Oct)
Previous: 0.1% (Sep)
Latest Update: 20 Dec 2024
Details: Retail Volume refers to the actual quantity or volume of goods sold by retailers over a specific period.
Relevance: Monitoring Retail Volume is crucial for understanding consumer demand and market dynamics. By monitoring Retail Volume trends, retailers can adjust their inventory levels, pricing strategies, or product offerings to better meet consumer demand.
Interaction with Other Metrics:
-
Retail Value: Retail Volume interacts closely with Retail Value to provide an overview of retail performance. When these metrics move in tandem (both rising or falling), it can indicate a relatively stable environment. Rising Retail Value with Falling Retail Volume might suggest Inflationary pressures or shifting consumer preferences.
-
CPIH (Consumer Prices Index including Housing): Retail Volume is influenced by CPIH, reflecting changes in consumer purchasing power due to inflation. Higher CPIH may impact Retail Volume by affecting consumer discretionary spending.
- PPI (Producer Price Index): PPI influences Retail Volume by impacting production costs. Higher PPI may lead to increased retail prices, potentially affecting consumer demand and Retail Volume.
Retail Value captures nominal growth (not adjusted for inflation), whereas Retail Volume reflects real growth (adjusted for inflation).
Possible Scenarios
-
- Retail Value up, Volume flat: Inflation-driven growth (prices rise, but quantity sold remains unchanged).
- Retail Value up, Volume up: True consumer demand growth (higher revenue driven by increased sales quantity).
(BOE)
Bank Of England Metrics
Interest Rate
Current: 4.75%
Last Update: 4.75%
Previous: 5.00%
Latest Update: 19 Dec 2024
Details: The Bank of England (BoE) sets interest rates, which influence the cost of borrowing for individuals and businesses.
Relevance: Interest rates affect mortgage payments, consumer loans, and business investments, impacting consumer spending and business profitability.
Interaction with Other Metrics: Higher interest rates typically increase mortgage costs, reducing discretionary spending on furniture and other goods. Lower interest rates can stimulate borrowing and spending, potentially boosting furniture sales. Changes in interest rates also reflect broader economic conditions and confidence levels, influencing business decisions on pricing and investment.
We constantly update our metrics and introduce new ones to better inform your strategic decisions. If we’ve missed a key metric or there is one you’d like us to track, please don’t hesitate to reach out via our Contact Page or email us at hello@furniturefuel.com. Your input helps us provide the most relevant insights for your business.
